Turning a changing climate into numbers you can act on
Quant Climate uses Bayesian statistics to quantify how the changing climate affects policy, finance, and economic outcomes — with every estimate reported alongside its uncertainty, so you can make decisions with a clear view of the risks.
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Climate & physical risk, quantified
We translate climate and environmental data into probabilistic estimates of physical and financial risk. Rather than a single point forecast, you get a full posterior distribution — the range of plausible outcomes and how likely each one is.
- Physical climate risk modelling for finance, insurance, energy, and government.
- Full uncertainty quantification — credible intervals, not just point estimates.
- Projections grounded in observed data and transparent assumptions.
- Results your team can defend to regulators, boards, and stakeholders.
Policy evaluation & causal impact
How much did an intervention actually change? We build Bayesian causal models that separate the effect of a policy from everything else going on. For example, we quantified how the UK's Ultra Low Emission Zone reduced air-pollution levels across Greater London.
- Rigorous before-and-after and counterfactual analysis.
- Estimates of effect size and confidence in that effect.
- Applied to air quality, emissions, and environmental policy.
- Clear, decision-ready reporting for public and private stakeholders.
Supply-chain & economic exposure
Climate change reshapes the economy through second-order effects that are easy to miss. Our work on the Rhine, for instance, showed how warmer winters lower water levels and shrink the window in which cargo ships can operate — directly disrupting supply chains that depend on the river.
- Model the knock-on effects of climate on operations and trade.
- Connect physical drivers to economic and financial outcomes.
- Scenario analysis across plausible climate futures.
- Quantified exposure to inform planning and resilience strategy.
Have a climate question that needs a rigorous answer?
Whether you're weighing physical risk, evaluating a policy, or stress-testing a supply chain against a warming world, we can help you quantify it — uncertainty included. Let's talk about your data and your decision.
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